An estimated 42% of all residents (and 59% of children in Forsyth County) would likely experience poverty if workers in their households employed in at-risk jobs were to lose those jobs.

This risk disproportionately impacts African American and Hispanic/Latino residents.

Feeding America estimates that 19% of all Forsyth County residents and 27% of children are experiencing food insecurity [11].

An estimated 61% of adult Hispanic/Latino males and 43% of adult Hispanic/Latina females do not have health insurance, which puts their families at significant financial risk if they contract COVID-19 and incur unexpected medical costs.

As education shifts to remote learning done in the home, about 10% of children and 20% of Hispanic/Latino children live in households where all of the adults have at least some trouble speaking English.

Additionally, about 8% of children in Forsyth County live in a household where no adults have a high school diploma, which could potentially put children at long-term risk of falling behind in school and result in a long-term loss of human capital, which may disproportionately impact some communities [3].

Sections in the Expert and Literature Review

Disruptions and Shocks

Economic impacts will occur in phases while we are still collectively learning more about the illness itself, when industries can safely reopen, and possible support for families who have lost income due to loss of work [12]. These factors can greatly impact recovery efforts especially as it relates to employment and restarting the economy.

The economy will experience disruptions to the supply chain, loss of work due to illness, layoffs, and restrictions and/or closings (i.e. travel restrictions impacting the hospitality industry, businesses deemed nonessential, etc.) [3][13]. As a result of layoffs, reduced income, and limited buying power, the economy will experience a “demand shock” resulting in loss of profit for businesses, especially small businesses [13][14].

Individuals and families at all levels will experience economic impacts as a result of the pandemic; however, the degree of impact may differ based on vulnerability factors that could intensify an individual or household’s economic strain [15].

Potential Short, Mid, and Long-term Impacts

.In discussing the potential economic impact of the COVID-19 event, various articles and experts clustered potential impacts by assessing short-term and medium to long-term economic impacts of the pandemic.

Conditions are changing daily and communities are already experiencing specific impacts of COVID-19. Families and individuals are seeing a reduction in work hours, layoffs, and limited income especially for hourly workers [15]. Based on expert interviews and a review of literature, potential short-term anticipated economic impacts include:

• Idle working status where employees are still being paid but may be unable to work from home
• Increased rates of remote work [5].
• Job layoffs, loss in wages, and/or a reduction in salary [3][5].
• Increased unemployment claims filed [5].
• Increased risk of exposure to the virus for essential workers, which may result in an increase in medical bills and treatment costs [3][12][14].
• Limited employment opportunities for individuals in the hospitality and service sector [5].
• Initial loss of profit for small businesses [16][17].
• Increased food and housing insecurity[3][16].

Another sector immediately impacted by the COVID-19 event is small business, which may rely on sales or contracts [16][17]. “The implications for small businesses are huge. For individuals that rely on sales they are almost at zero dollars — their lives have changed in the blink of an eye” [16].

Potential medium and or long-term impacts may include:

• The potential for long-term health issues and medical cost for individuals who contracted the virus[3][5].
• Default on loans due to lack of income and ability to make payments [5].
• Reduced labor force participation, demand, and production in various industries [13].
• Increased remote work [5][14].
• Increased virtual K-12 education [5].
• Lack of investment in the local economy as people turn to companies like Amazon [3].
• Hospitals and the medical sector may see an increase in uninsured patients and a reduction in more profitable elective surgeries. This may lead to a loss of profits for hospitals in the long-term [3].
• Widening inequality and limited social and economic mobility [3][12].

It’s important to note, Federal, State and local government agencies are exploring additional supportive services and funding to assist communities as we collectively navigate this unprecedented event [18].

Vulnerability Factors

While a large majority of our community is being impacted by the unexpected economic shock of COVID-19, some residents are more vulnerable to its impacts than others. For example, access to health insurance, specifically health insurance that covers the bulk of cost of care with limited out of pocket cost, is one of many factors that may make some Forsyth County residents more vulnerable than others to negative economic outcomes as a result of the pandemic.

To illustrate this point, consider that a doctor and a sanitation worker in a medical facility may be exposed to the same risk of getting sick at work and incurring unexpected medical expenses. However, if the doctor has health insurance and the sanitation worker does not, the economic impact of contracting COVID-19 would be different for their two households, even though the risk factor, getting sick at work, is the same [14].

When assessing potential economic impacts of COVID-19, as well as potential relief efforts, it’s important to consider who is most vulnerable to the unexpected economic shock [19]. Below, we provide a brief snapshot of potential vulnerability factors related to COVID-19 that may increase the potential economic strain on some residents more than others; this does not represent an extensive list.

Types of Workers

Furloughed or Laid-off Workers: Some industries have experienced reduced hours, complete closures, and/or an increase in layoffs, all of which can impact a household’s income [15][16].

In an effort to enforce social distancing measures, businesses may have to reduce operating hours which could result in reduced hours for employees, a reduced customer base, reduced sales, and potential closure. Many small or independently-owned businesses, specifically, have limited financial reserves to weather potential losses and may be at a higher risk of closure than other types of businesses [3][12][16][20].

Tipped Workers: Jobs that rely on tips (i.e., “front end” restaurant workers like servers) who are no longer able to work due to widespread suspension of dine-in services may experience increased layoffs or a reduction in hours and income [21].

Non-Essential Workers: Non-essential jobs, and/or jobs that require face-to-face interactions may also experience a reduction in operations which could lead to employee layoffs and closures [3][17].

The Department of Homeland Security designated a list of essential infrastructure workers who “ensure continuity of functions critical to public health and safety, as well as economic and national security.” This list is not considered a federal directive and includes a wide variety of industries and workers which may differ from state to state [22].

Residents with Limited Resources

Renters: As stay-at-home measures are implemented to limit the spread of COVID-19, increases in layoffs and reductions in hours can be particularly financially challenging for renters. Renters are less likely to have significant savings to cover the cost of housing in the event of lost income and may potentially face housing displacement [10].

Households with Low Income: Individuals or households who were making low wages or who recently became eligible for supportive services before COVID-19 may struggle to pay for food and other expenses like rent and utilities due to limited access to resources like savings and credit. Agencies providing supportive services may experience enrollment issues due to the high demand associated with COVID-19 [15].

Low-wage workers, specifically in the health aid, hospitality, retail, and caregiving sectors are more susceptible to the economic impact of COVID-19 due to existing low wages, potential economic insecurity, and increased risk of exposure should they continue to work [23].

Households without Savings: Households with a lack of savings do not have a financial buffer against lost income are more vulnerable to economic insecurity associated with COVID-19 if they experience a job loss and/or other household financial reductions [24].

Uninsured and Underinsured: In the event an individual or household becomes infected with the COVID-19 virus, the unexpected cost of treatment, and/or inadequate health insurance coverage, and/or complete lack of health insurance coverage may result in additional financial strain and out-of-pocket expenses to cover the cost of care [3][14][22][25].

Residents Excluded from Supportive Services and Relief Programs

Undocumented Residents: The lack of a social security number may prevent an undocumented individual from receiving stimulus funds through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) [26][27].

Residents without Work Status: Residents without work status documentation and individuals who work in informal positions may not have access to supportive programs. [14][27].

Historically Marginalized Residents

Non-white Workers: Due to historical structural, social, and economic inequality which contribute to inadequate access to health care, employment, sufficient wages, and income, African American and Hispanic/Latino workers are more susceptible to the health and economic impacts of COVID-19 [5][12][28][29].

Women: When considering marginalized groups, the literature also highlights the potential burden women who work in low-wage service jobs may face as it relates to the potential loss of wages if exposed to the virus if women are primarily responsible for caretaking of children or a sick relative who may contract the virus [23].

Exacerbating Existing Vulnerabilities

The vulnerability factors highlighted above are discussed in context of COVID-19, however some experts argue that COVID-19 has simply illuminated the impact of chronic stressors and lasting presence of inequality on communities, especially during a major crisis event [19][29]. While COVID-19 is impacting the community at many levels, the literature and experts point to the disproportionate health and economic impact of COVID-19 for individuals with low income, for communities of color, and highlight the similarities between disparities seen during past recessions and natural disasters [5][12][29][30]. Understanding vulnerability factors as well as the role of chronic stressors and long-standing structural inequality are important to consider when evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19, access to economic relief and supportive services, and the ability to recover from economic shock [29].

Federal Response

Listed below are notable COVID-19 responses initiated at the federal level, specifically those that are directly relevant to vulnerable populations:

The Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act was signed into law on March 6th, 2020. The act temporarily waived Medicare restrictions associated with telehealth access for services [31][32].

The Families First Coronavirus Response Act was signed into law on March 18th, 2020 [33]:

• The act provided emergency paid sick leave, nutrition assistance, unemployment benefits, increased federal funding for Medicaid, and covered the cost of COVID-19 testing [31][33].
• The act included provisions related to emergency and medical/family paid sick leave which applies to public employers, employers with fewer than 500 employees, and COVID-19 related need for leave of absence [33].
• Importantly, employees who work in certain health care fields, emergency responders, and organizations with fewer than 50 employees were excluded from emergency paid sick leave [33].
• The act increased funding for unemployment benefits for the 2020 fiscal year to be distributed among states to provide unemployment benefits and administration of the process [33].

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) was signed into law on March 27th, 2020. In addition to providing additional funding for unemployment benefits, the act authorized one-time economic impact payments for US citizens:

• The act implemented one-time economic impact payments of $1,200 (for individuals) and additional funding for households with children [31][34][35]. Payments from the act are intended to reduce financial strain for individuals and households during the COVID-19 pandemic [26].
• Eligibility requirements to receive the one-time economic impact payments include: must be a U.S. citizen or U.S. resident alien; cannot be claimed as a dependent on someone else’s tax return; must have a social security number that is valid for employment and if either spouse is a member of the U.S. Armed Forces at any time during the taxable year, then only one spouse needs to have a valid SSN; Adjusted gross income must be below an amount based on your filing status and the number of your qualifying children.

The Paycheck Protection Program and Healthcare Enhancement Act was signed into law on April 24th, 2020:

• $484 billion dollars were designated to replenish the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) intended to support small businesses and keep individuals on payroll [31].
• The act also designated funds to support public health efforts such as testing and funding for hospitals [31].

State Response

Listed below are notable COVID-19 responses initiated at the state level (North Carolina), specifically those that are directly relevant to vulnerable populations:

Executive Order No. 118 went into effect on March 17, 2020, and broadened unemployment benefits for individuals who lost employment or experienced a significant reduction in hours as a result of COVID-19 [36].

Executive Order No. 124 went into effect on March 31, 2020, and prohibited utility disconnections and service fees. The order provided guidance for telecommunications providers, banks, and mortgage lenders related to late/delayed client payments and assistance for customers who are experiencing economic hardships as a result of COVID-19 [37]. The Executive Order also encouraged sheriffs offices and the courts to restrict evictions [37]. The order was effective for 60 days unless it was retracted, reinstated, or extended [37]. While a temporary hold on evictions is beneficial, communities across the US and the literature points to increasing fear of massive evictions once moratoriums are lifted [38].

Executive Order No. 134 went into effect on April 20th, 2020. The order extended unemployment benefits for furloughed North Carolina residents [39].

Executive Order No. 142 went into effect May 30th, 2020. The order extended the prohibition of utility disconnection and temporarily prohibited evictions for residents of North Carolina [40]. The prohibition for residential evictions will continue for 21 days after the order was signed but may be extended by another executive order [40]. Disconnection restrictions related to utilities have been extended to July 29th, 2020, and providers can not charge penalties or interest associated with late fees [40]. This order may be extended [40].

Executive Order No. 143 went into effect on June 4, 2020. The order is intended to combat COVID-19’s disproportionate impact on black and brown communities [41]. This order established the North Carolina Pandemic Recovery Office, and created a task force charged with eliminating economic disparities and ensuring coronavirus-related recovery efforts and resources are equally distributed across the state [41] [42].

Sections in the Extended Analyses

Residents Who May be Vulnerable to Economic Shocks

While most Forsyth County residents are being impacted by COVID-19, some residents are more economically vulnerable to the negative impacts of the pandemic than others [14]. For more information about vulnerability, click here. This section looks at how many Forsyth County residents may be particularly vulnerable to the negative economic impacts of the pandemic.

Residents with Previously Insufficient or Marginally Sufficient Incomes

Why income insufficiency matters: The Federal Poverty Thresholds (sometimes known as “The Poverty Line”) is a measure of whether or not residents are making enough money to meet their basic needs. Forsyth Futures’ literature review and conversations with experts found that residents who are already not making enough income to meet their basic needs or are just barely making enough income to meet their basic needs are at a higher risk than residents with more income of not being able to meet those needs if they experience an economic shock, like losing a job, having an unexpected bill, or getting their hours cut at work [14][24]. This may make these workers more economically vulnerable than other workers if they lose their jobs or become ill and have unexpected medical bills as a result of the pandemic [12][14].

Residents Who Rent their Homes

Why renters may be more vulnerable: Research shows that renters on average have less money in savings and are more likely to have difficulties paying their housing costs than homeowners [10]. Recent federal legislation also provided homeowners with the ability to defer mortgage payments during the COVID-19 crisis, but did not provide similar protections for renters, potentially putting them at a higher risk of losing their housing if they lose income as a result of COVID-19 related job loss or medical bills [10].

Residents Who May be Impacted by COVID-19 in Particular

This report focuses on the economic outcomes of COVID-19. Because these economic outcomes are being driven by a pandemic specifically, there are some economic outcomes that are specific to this crisis. For example, residents who catch the virus may have unexpected medical bills, which could impact them economically [29]. And, while any economic recession could increase the risk of food insecurity, specific measures being put in place to prevent the spread of the virus could interrupt the ways that even previously food insecure residents access food.

Residents Without Health Insurance

Why residents without health insurance may be vulnerable: residents who do not have access to health insurance or have high out-of-pocket copays may incur significant medical bills if they are hospitalized as a result of COVID-19 [29]. This risk is a particular concern for residents who are essential workers [29] or live in close proximity to essential workers who may be at higher risk of exposure to the virus [3][12][14]. In assessing the level of economic risk that not having health insurance poses, it is also important to consider how exposure to chronic stressors and inequality [19], such as poverty, structural and interpersonal racism, classism, lack of a livable wage, access to healthy food, and dense living conditions influence the likelihood of exposure to the virus coupled with having pre-existing conditions that could make an individual more likely to be hospitalized if they contract the virus [3][12][14][29].

Residents Who are Food Insecure

Why they may be vulnerable: as families lose income, more residents are likely to become food insecure as well and may not be as well connected to grocery stores and other food supply resources [3][15].

COVID-19 and Employment

Social distancing practices, shelter-in-place orders, and public health measures have resulted in a significant loss of employment for many residents [5]. If the economy takes time to regain strength after the social distancing measures are lifted, the resulting slowdown in the economy could continue to impact jobs [5]. This section looks at Forsyth County residents who are at risk of losing employment or experiencing a cutback in hours.

Workers at Risk of Job Loss

The literature review and expert interviews identified some occupations and fields that may be at particular risk of job loss. Residents who were identified as those at risk for losing their jobs were residents who reported working in an occupation that requires close contact with other people or who reported working in a field, like the arts and entertainment, that was identified in the literature or by experts as a field likely to lose jobs as a result of the pandemic and subsequent recession.

Part-Time and Seasonal Employees

Why part-time and seasonal employees may be vulnerable:part-time and seasonal employees are at the highest risk of being laid off during an economic shock [5].

Essential Workers

Workers classified as essential are allowed to continue working during a shelter-in-place order. Some workers in essential fields may still be laid off or experience a reduction in hours, depending on their specific employment situation [3][22]. For example, food service is an essential business, but staff at restaurants that are closed or reducing staff capacity while shifting to offering takeout or delivery may still be laid off or experience a reduction in hours [21].

While some essential workers will continue working through the crisis, essential workers who are still working in fields where they work face-to-face with other residents may be at particular risk of contracting COVID-19 [3][12][22]. Workers without access to health insurance or paid sick leave [3] or who have less money in savings may be more economically vulnerable than others if they contract COVID-19 [22][24][25].

While schools are closed due to the pandemic, some households in which all adults are employed as essential workers will also need emergency childcare services to care for their children while they work [12].

Essential workers in this report are defined based on an analysis by The Brookings Institution that used the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) to identify industries that correlated with the Department of Homeland Security’s definitions of “essential critical infrastructure” [22]. Forsyth Futures’ analysts classified NAICS codes identified in the main list provided by Brookings as “likely essential” and the industries identified by Brookings as likely containing non-essential workers along with some essential workers as “possibly essential”. All other workers were identified as “non-essential”.

Potential Long-term Educational Outcomes

One way that the COVID-19 pandemic could impact long-term social mobility in Forsyth County is through disruption of education. Barriers related to limited internet access, dependable devices, language barriers, reading level of guardians, or other challenges to support children’s remote education could increase learning loss and education inequality [3][46].

The transition to online education may also be disruptive to current college students, especially those who do not have access to broadband internet at home [46].

Connect and Engage

Change Log

This log contains a record of updates made to this webpage as new content is added:

• July 15, 2020: initial publication
• July 27, 2020: dashboard data updated
• August 11, 2020: dashboard data updated
• September 10, 2020: dashboard data updated
• October 28, 2020: dashboard data updated
• April 19, 2021: dashboard data updated

Acknowledgements